Bahrain: What's at stake for America

Washington (CNN) -- Bahrain -- a tiny group of islands where hot political rhetoric meets cold military reality.

As far as Washington is concerned, this small Persian Gulf kingdom may be where support for Middle East democracy dies. The loss of American military power that could accompany an overthrow of the regime of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa is incalculable.

Nestled between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Bahrain is home to 1.2 million people. More importantly, it's home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet -- a vital instrument for the Pentagon in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Fighter jets from carriers in the fleet provide close air support for American troops in Afghanistan.

The fleet is also a potential bulwark against a future nuclear Iran, analysts note.

"It's our most important strategic asset in the Persian Gulf," said Michael Rubin, a former Bahrain resident and Middle East expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

The security of America's naval presence in Bahrain was called into question when protests erupted there this week. Three people died and dozens were injured Thursday when security forces stormed a group of protesters. Witnesses described a blunt show of force, with police firing pellets and rubber bullets, as well as using tear gas.

Two other people died during disturbances earlier in the week.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in response that the United States has "deep concerns" about the crackdown. Future protests should "not be marred by violence," she declared.

"Violence is not an appropriate reaction," lectured White House Press Secretary Jay Carney. Leaders in Bahrain and across the Middle East region need to "be more responsive" and "live up to the hopes and dreams of their people."

But exactly how responsive?

Bahrain has been ruled by a Sunni Muslim royal family since the British left in 1971. Two-thirds of its population are Shiites. While the latest turmoil is largely a reaction to uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere, younger Shiites have routinely led protests -- often violent -- to complain about discrimination, unemployment and corruption.

They also rioted when the Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah of Iran in 1979. Since then, every time Shiite protests have become too heated, the Sunni rulers of Saudi Arabia have quietly sent troops into the country, according to Rubin.

"On the one hand, Bahrain is a flash point between the United States and Iran," he told CNN. On the other, it's "a flash point between Saudi Arabia and Iran."

Bahrain was actually a Persian province through the 16th century. Iran claimed the territory when the Britain left, but the Bahrainis opted for independence.

"Bahrain is Iran's Kuwait," Rubin said, referencing former Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein's insistence that Kuwait was rightfully an Iraqi province.

If Bahrain's government falls, "there is no question -- no ifs, ands or buts -- Bahrain would become an Iranian satellite, and the Fifth Fleet would be sent packing," Rubin predicted.

The Obama administration is "not being too vocal on the riots in Bahrain because it's pretty much the one country where we can't afford regime change," he said.

Could U.S. officials find a new naval home in the Gulf? Possibly Qatar or the United Arab Emirates, Rubin said, but "if there's a sense that the dominoes are falling and the United States is the big loser, then all the regional states are going to make their accommodation with Iran whether they like us or not."

The stakes could not be higher.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/02/17/us.bahrain.stakes/index.html

William B. Robinson

Iran Holds Tour of Nuclear Facility for International Envoys

Iran allowed a group of international envoys to visit one of its uranium enrichment facilities ahead of a new round of talks on its atomic program. No representatives from the major powers that are negotiating with Iran attended the tour.

Envoys from Syria, Algeria, Venezuela, Egypt, Oman and Cuba visited the site with Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, according to a report by the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

The European Union, Russia and China were invited to take part and declined. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said Jan. 7 it’s the “role” of the IAEA to inspect nuclear sites in Iran.

Iran is under international sanctions for refusing to scale back its nuclear work, which the U.S. and allies say may be cover for weapons development. Iranian leaders deny the charge.

Iran resumed nuclear talks last month in Geneva with the so-called P5+1 nations -- United Nations Security Council permanent members China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S. plus Germany -- after more than a year. The second round will take place in Istanbul on Jan. 21 and Jan. 22.

While Iran has agreed to pursue talks, it said it would “absolutely not” suspend the production of enriched uranium, a material that can fuel a reactor or, at higher concentrations, form the core of a bomb. The work is at the heart of the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program.

Iranian officials say the tour is part of Iran’s “policy of transparency.”

The foreign representatives visited the country’s uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, central Tehran, IRNA said. The visit follows a tour yesterday of Iran’s Arak heavy water facility, the report said.

The Persian Gulf state arranged a similar trip for foreign envoys in Feb. 2007.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-16/iran-holds-tour-of-nuclear-facility-for-international-envoys.html

By: William B. Robinson

Iran says it can create its own nuclear fuel plates, rods

January 8th, 2011

Iran finally is able to create their own fuel plates and fuel rods for their manufacturing of Nuclear weapons. Akbar Salehi, told state media in December that Iran was now able to create a complete Nuclear cycle; making its nuclear weapon program self sufficient. Right now the United States and its allies are in strong belief that Iran is trying to produce mass amounts of nuclear weapons but at the moment Iran is in complete denial.

John McWard

www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/08/iran.nuclear/index.html

WikiLeaks to Dump Again Monday

Come this Monday once again WikiLeaks will release nearly 400,000 pages of Iran-US war related material, the single largest release of classified documents in US military history. The release may contain material released to the military but not released to the public before. The documents are expected to to contain material relating to possible ethnic cleansing, secret prisons, and a supposed US involved bloodbath. An investigation is ongoing to who might have leaked the information with the main suspect being Bradley Manning, the suspect in the Afghan war leaks.

Amy Pacheco

Sanctions in response

On May 18th, the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, made an announcement that five veto-aiming members of the UN Security Council and Germany had consented to extend sanctions on Iran and would present this resolution to the full council soon. This is a fierce response to the triumph the regional powers – Brazil and Turkey – just touched a day earlier, a deal of exchanging low-enriched uranium for the higher enriched one between these two countries and Iran. The five permanent members found this situation faithless, in regard to the scar of the October deal in which Iran turned their back. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council requires 9 votes out of 15 (with no veto from the permanent five) for the resolution. Lebanon is skeptical; Gabon has gone for negotiation; Mexico gets stuck between its regional partners of America and Brazil; China is in no doubt for a veto, while America is considering tougher sanctions as a diplomatic manner. In conclusion, “it now seems that Iran may have successfully repeated its old trick of confusing and dividing countries preparing to tighten the net around it.”

Submitted by Yen Do.

Israel’s Prime Minister dropped out of the Nuclear Summit meeting.

Benjamin Netanyahu – Prime Minister of Israel – cancelled his trip to the Nuclear Summit meeting held in Washington DC next week, and placed another minister for this event this past Thursday April 8. The meeting between leaders of nearly four dozen countries is to focus on the weapons of North Korea, the nuclear program of Iran, as well as possible sanctions against Iran. The cancellation was left with silence but Israel’s media believed that the Prime Minister feared of the scenario where this meeting would be an occasion for Muslim states and other countries to question about Israel’s suspected nuclear armament and its refusal to sign the nonproliferation treaty.

This last-minute cancellation has also placed a backlash on the terms of restarting peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians of the Obama administration and the Netanyahu government which has already been a tension.

Read more athttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/09/world/middleeast/09mideast.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Findex.jsonp

by Yen Do.

Cyber Wars: Backlash of the Internet

Iran has arrested 30 people for waging what it called an organized, U.S.-backed cyber war against the nation. The government is accusing W. Bush of supplying $400 million for a cyber war project. As a matter of fact

One branch of the project, dubbed the "Iran Proxy," was capable of infiltrating Iran's data banks, sabotaging its Web sites, and facilitating contacts between Iranian opposition figures and U.S.-funded media like Voice of America radio and Radio Farda, according to Fars.

I think that the public in general has been sleeping on the new threats that the Internet poses. When we were discussing the decline of the US hegemony, we addressed the convergence of the previous and emerging powers and how that transition has been traditionally violent and resulted in war. I think the next shift may very well be technological warfare. Every major shift has set precedent, the trench warfare that essentially emerged for the first time in WWII, solidified the US hegemony. I propose that whoever is successful in the new technological age will be the next hegemonic state. Iran has every right to be concerned if this was actually occurring. If the US is able to continue advance at an astronomical pace technologically in comparison to other nations, they may very well be able to delay the expiration on their global position.

by Sarah Richardson

Iran-Secret Nuclear Site

Taking a realist perspective, why are we questioning Iran's intents with their "pilot-scale enrichment plant". The question is why have they not claimed exactly what they were building. If we look at their intent, then it would appear to be suspicious. If they are truly creating enough uranium to produce a nuclear warhead then they do not have rational intentions. Nuclear warheads are destructive, as their intentions appear. This article also conveys suspicions into their new building because it has not been searched and the exact location is still unidentified. Regardless of their intent we need to prepare ourselves for whatever intentions Iran may have, as they are creating things and buildings quite conspicuously.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/25/iran-nuclear-uranium-enrichment-intelligence

Khamenei Denies Iranian Nuclear Arms Program

In a recent television broadcast, supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei announced that Iran "fundamentally rejects nuclear weapons". The Ayatollah stated that the US has made, and continues to make, false accusations against Iran's nuclear program. The Ayatollah then went on to reiterate that Iran is developing nuclear technology only for the purpose of production of nuclear energy. This is the first official response from an Iranian official regarding a recently scrapped attempt by the US to put an anti-missile system in eastern Europe to protect against any potential Iranian bomb threat. International talks with Iran are scheduled to begin October 1st, and the US, the UK, France, Russia, and China are slated to attend.

Source: BBC

By: Grace Heimerl

Iranian Presidential Candidates Chosen

The Guardian Council of Iran has chosen 12 candidates for president, among them current President Ahmadinejad. 250 candidates submitted applications, including 42 women but only the top 4 candidates are chosen as finalists. Any candidates according to the Iranian constitution have to believe in Islam and the tenets of the Islamic Revolution. The selection of these four squashes some of the rumors that had been circulating that Iran may have a female president. However, it does pose the possibility that the United States and the rest of the world may have to adapt their policy to someone besides Ahmadinejad.

Secretary of State warns against growing Iranian, Chinese gains in Latin America

by Jeff Gimm

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently described the growing gains of Iran and China in Latin America as "quite disturbing." CNN quotes Clinton as saying that "What we are doing hasn't worked very well and in fact, if you look at the gains, particularly in Latin American, that Iran is making and China is making, it is quite disturbing."
The effort to counter Chinese and Iranian may be one of the reasons why Obama made a semi controversial move at a recent summit by talking to Hugo Chavez, along with the recent thawing of relations with Cuba.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/05/01/clinton.latin.america/index.html?eref=rss_world