An ongoing conflict in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region is threatening to escalate into an all-out war, with the potential of drawing in NATO ally Turkey. Fighting started Sunday morning and continues, Armenians as well as Azerbaijanis claimed.
The ethnic Armenian majority in the region fought a bloody war of secession from Azerbaijan as the Soviet Union fell apart 30 years ago. A tense cease fire - but not lasting peace - has since kept tensions high in the Caucasus.
Russia has a defense pact with Armenia and a military base in the landlocked country, but the Kremlin also maintains good relations with Azerbaijan. Turkey's relation with Armenia are clouded by the Ottoman Empire's 1915 genocide on Armenians and continues to stand with Azerbaijan.
No country, not even Armenia, has recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as independent of Azerbaijan; the danger now is if the regular Armenian army gets down into fighting with Azerbaijan. Experts fear that if this conflict is not stopped through serious outside pressure, then war will come. A full-blown war would send ripples through the entire North Caucasus region and affect all major players, including Russia and Turkey.
Jan Mueller
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