Scarcity of Global Reserves Threatens Oil-rich Regions with Instability

There is only an estimated 40 years' oil supply left. Though the Middle East is the primary focus of oil-related conflict, other regions that supply oil will become increasingly important- the Caspian Sea, the Gulf of Guinea, and some of Latin America. Though conflict is unlikely at this point, tensions will probably arise between Russia, which influences Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and seeks control over the oil located in the Caspian Sea basin, and China as its demand for oil rapidly increases. African countries suffer a distinct "oil curse": people feel increasingly alienated from the benefits of the oil business after the oil business itself creates conflict between rival entities struggling to gain control; even when there is income from the oil, there are grave disputes over how governments should spend the money, which destroy governmental accountability. Though Latin America does not suffer from tensions over oil quite yet, foreign powers have yet to exert their influences. The chances of conflict there are minimal because there is little dispute over who controls what oil. The bottom line: this oil conflict is small now but will escalate as time goes by; current systems affected by oil rapidly approach their expiration dates and already begin to fester- now.

Rebecca M. Samson