Kenya’s recent invasion of Somalia appears to be a “high-stakes gamble” for the country.
The United States’ claim that the Kenyan offensive took them by surprise is somewhat implausible, considering that recent missile attacks on jihadist fighters in Somalia seem to have come from American drones and/or submarines.
Kenya has said that its immediate plan is to inflict “trauma and damage” on Al Shabaab by attacking the town of Kismayo from the west and south. However, what Kenya plans to do after it attacks Kismayo is unclear. In addition, no one knows how Somalis will react to the Kenyans’ presence. Many analysts believe that Kenya will have a bloody fight on its hands no matter what it chooses to do.
Kenya’s decision to take direct action against Al Shabaab may have been influenced by the group’s kidnapping and killing of foreign tourists (which has wrecked Kenyan tourism), as well as Kenyan citizens and soldiers.
Many NGOs argue that Kenya’s offensive against Al Shabaab may make more people in Southern Somalia hungry at a time when 750,000 Somalis are at immediate risk of dying from hunger.
There is little doubt that Kenya’s assault on Al Shabaab will damage commerce between it and Somalia.
Andrew Elam
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