As hostilities continue to rise in Eastern Europe, rumors and fears of gas supply cuts at the hands of Russia continue to circulate. While its true that Russia is one of the largest natural gas exporters and supplies most, if not all, of Europe's oil, a new look at Russian necessities has surfaced. While (theoretically) Crimea is apart of Russia, it relies primarily on the Ukraine for water and electricity. As much as 80% of Crimea's local water supply comes from Ukrainian pipelines. The controversy has reached new heights with claims that Ukrainian resources are being drained without compensation. Debts are accumulating in Crimea (which is essential Russia), over $200,000 in water and an astonishing $74.1 million in electrical, placing in the hands of Ukraine a small but powerful bargaining chip in their correspondence with Russia.
The tables could turn either way at this point, with Russia still having the upper hand. One scenario is Ukraine following through with it threats to cut electricity to Crimea, rendering it black. Unfortunately this course of action could potentially lead to Russia carrying out its threat to close oil lines. A second scenario, involving Russia's logistical problem with Crimea water and electrical supply, could result in Russia simply seizing more land, primarily Ukrainian to "resolve" the issue of debt, because you can't owe a debt to a country that you seize. The crisis in Eastern Europe has so many dimensions to it at his point, that one course of actions will inevitably lead to a greater, more dramatic one. Energy cuts, invasion, riots, occupation, black outs.... you name it, and its a possibility.
-Alexandra Dominguez
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