The Arab world is in much better shape than it was less than a year ago. Although the economies of the countries affected by the democratic upheavals have suffered in the short run, they are finally free from the constraints of dictatorial rule, and may prosper in the long run.
Democratic institutions and processes are finally beginning to emerge in the countries affected by the upheavals. Tunisia has already held an open and orderly presidential election, and Egypt and Libya are planning for theirs to take place within a year.
The rise of Islamist parties in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya should not necessarily be a cause for alarm in the West; a more open and tolerant brand of political Islam seems to be emerging, especially now that the Islamist parties have to compete for voters who admire the Islamists’ aversion to corruption, but dislike their conservative attitudes.
The strength of the Arab revolutions comes from the fact that they have been almost entirely home grown. Although the Libyan revolutionaries depended upon NATO’s support, the Libyan revolution was still initiated by the Libyans themselves. Libya’s democratic upheaval can be contrasted with the slow and painful construction of Iraq’s democratic system, which was initiated by the United States.
The prospects for Western influence in the Middle East depend upon whether the West can form healthy relationships with the new Arab democracies. Unlike in the past, this influence will largely take the form of education, investment, and advice.
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