Debunking the myth of a future Chinese takeover of Siberia

This article on the Vineyard of the Saker blog was written as a takedown of an article that appeared in the New York Times entitled 'Why China Will Reclaim Siberia.' The NYT article supposes that China will pour immigrants into the sparsely populated Russian Far East until they outnumber the Russians and then take over the region for its natural resources.

This idea is one of the many ludicrous myths about Russia's decline (which exist because American neocons and neoliberals want them to be true - they want Russia to be declining and fading away), and the article from The Saker makes a simple yet ironclad case exposing its absurdity.

Reason #1: There is very little Chinese immigration to Siberia. Chinese make up three percent of the Siberian population - and that three percent is mostly seasonal migrant workers and not permanent residents. The fact is, Siberia is thinly populated by Russians because it is a very harsh and difficult environment for people to live in and can only support a small population. It is already at or close to its maximum capacity - there aren't enough resources to support millions of Chinese people moving in. "There are more ethnic Chinese in New York than there are in the entire Russian Far East," as the blog puts it.

Reason #2: China doesn't have the military means to seize the region. The Chinese army is not trained nor equipped to carry out a full-scale invasion into that kind of terrain and climate, and Russia has a strong army of its own, as well as nuclear weapons. The costs of conquering Siberia would far outweigh the benefits to be had from annexing its resources.

Reason #3: From a realist's perspective, China benefits far more from a strong partnership with Russia than it would from owning Siberia and having Russia as a permanent enemy. A friendly Russia serves China as an energy and resource supplier, provider of advanced military equipment and technology, a diplomatic partner in the United Nations and in building international blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and a security partner in policing the Central Asian region against terrorism and drug trafficking, as well as helping to counter US influence over the region's governments and pipeline networks.

China throws away all of these benefits and has to pay the costs of a full-scale war and repairing a damaged Siberian infrastructure if it's ever foolish enough to try taking Siberia away from Russia by force.


The reality, of course, is that this simply is not going to happen. It's a wish-fulfillment fantasy of anti-Russian voices in the US foreign-policy establishment who hope to turn China and Russia against one another. 




Tim Mulhair

The Myth of a Chinese Takeover in Siberia